Metals &Mining:Commerce Department seeks duties on imports of aluminum sheet from China

Commerce Department self-initiates, alleged dumping margin 57-60%

    Typically, antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) begin after petitionsare filed by a domestic industry reacting to imports that are either 'dumped' or'unfairly subsidized'. However, in this case, the Commerce Department (CD) hasbegun an investigation against common alloy aluminum sheet based on its ownevidence that China's exports may be materially injuring, or threatening materialinjury to, the common alloy sheet industry in the US. This is the first time a selfinitiationhas occurred in 26years. While the CD investigates dumping marginsof 56.54-59.72%, the International Trade Commission's (ITC) will conduct its owninvestigation. The ITC's preliminary determination is expected by January 16,2018. If the ITC determines injury or a threat of injury, the CD investigationscan continue. A preliminary CVD determination is scheduled for February 2018and a preliminary AD determination is scheduled for April 2018. If the CD findsdumping or unfair subsidization has occurred, US Customs and Border Protectioncan collect cash deposits from companies importing the subject aluminum sheetfrom China. Final determinations by the CD are scheduled for April 2018for CVD,and July 2018for the AD.

    What is common alloy aluminum sheet?

    The sheet under investigation is typically used in construction (gutters anddownspouts), transportation (trailers, traffic signs and license plates) and kitchenappliances. More specifically the imports under investigation are flat-rolledaluminum having thickness of 0.2-6.3mm, in coils or cut-to-length. Excluded fromthe investigation is aluminum can stock (used in beverage cans production). In2016, 275kt (607m lbs) of common alloy sheet was imported from China and wasvalued at $604m. Year to date through September imports have grown to 279kt(615m lbs, +34% YoY), if annualized this would indicate 35% YoY growth to 372kt(820m lbs).

    Possible beneficiaries

    Alcoa, Arconic, Constellium and Kaiser Aluminum all have the ability to producethe commodity grade aluminum sheet under investigation. However, eachcurrently produces negligible, if any, amounts of the material. We believe importsfrom other countries could replace lost imports from China, rather than domesticproducers seeing entire benefit. Primary aluminum producers (Alcoa and CenturyAluminum) are unlikely to benefit on a volume basis, but could see improvedregional premia pricing.