Made in China:Chinese banks;China Gas Utilities;Results,Yili/Mengniu/BoCHK (+)Chang’an (-)

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong 日期:2017-09-12

The Big 4 Chinese banks reported 2Q17 net profit up 7.5% yoy (1Q17: 2%), 5% ahead of our estimates. While PPoP (adjusted for BOC's disposal gains in 2Q16) missed our already bullish estimates by 3% due to weaker non-interest income, the market should react positively to the stronger-than-expected NIM (up 4bps qoq or 2bps yoy) and lower NPL formation rate of 58bps. The quality difference between Big 4 and other banks has further widened, with the latter showing weak funding strength, inferior asset quality and slower asset growth. Our top picks remain ICBC and BOC, as among the Big 4, we believe they delivered relatively stronger results than the other two. (Hans Fan - 852 2203 6353) .

    On 30 August, the NDRC announced it will cut both gas transmission and city gate prices. Though we are still waiting for a detailed assessment by BEHL/Kunlun, the ShaanJing line tariff cut appears to be largely in line with our current model assumption (blended transmission tariff of Rmb0.24/cm (excl. VAT) based on NDRC’s announcement (Rmb0.2857/’000km/cm, see the announcement). At the same time, the NDRC also will cut city gate benchmark prices for each province by Rmb0.1/cm, or 5-9%. Both price cuts are effective on 1 September 2017. As we argued before, we believe the official issuance of SJ line tariff cut removes the biggest overhang for BEHL (392 HK, Buy) and Kunlun (0135 HK, Buy), which are trading at attractive valuations of 7x and 11x 2018E P/E. Reiterate Buy. (Michael Tong - 852 2203 6167)

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