Yangtze Power:Access China conference highlights

类别:公司研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong,Hanyu Zhang 日期:2018-01-15

Yangtze Power attended our AccessChina 2018conference and we lay out thekey takeaways below:

    Power output: The water inflow improved much in 2H17and the totalgeneration in 2017was up by 2.4% yoy (vs. 4% decrease in 1H17). ThreeGorges/Gezhouba recorded 4.4%/4.1% generation growth while Xiluodu’s outputremained flattish and Xiangjiaba’s output decreased slightly by 1.2%. Accordingto the management, there are 6bn kwh power curtailment in 2017(vs. 210.8bnkwh total power output) mainly in Xiluodu/Xiangjiaba and management expects itto decrease going forward. The synchronized dispatching among Yangtze’s fourhydro plants has contributed 9.6bn kwh additional power output in 2017andmanagement believes there is still further room to improve.

    Tariff updates: Yangtze Power just announced the tariff hike for its Xiluodu/Xiangjiaba (effective on Jul 2017) due to the mid-year tariff hike for thermal power.Tariff was raised by Rmb1.9/mwh to Rmb326.3/mwh for Xiluodu (Right) and wasraised by Rmb4.6/mwh to Rmb300.6/mwh for Xiluodu (Left) and Xiangjiaba. Outof the total 210.8bn kwh power output in 2017, around 12bn kwh is market-basedvolume with a price discount of c.Rmb20/mwh.

    Capital deployment: Yangtze has budgeted Rmb12bn/year for externalinvestments for next 2-3year. They will mainly focus on hydro/power retail sectorin domestic market and are also interested in overseas opportunities in hydro/power retail/gas power sector.

    Other key takeaways: The company is aware of the draft version notice by NDRCto reduce the VAT for hydro power, but they are still waiting for further officialupdates on this. Mgmt expects the financial cost to drop yoy in 2017and remainflattish in 2018with some reduction in total debt offset by higher effective interestrate. Yangtze will stick to its dividend policy of no less than Rmb0.65/sh for2017-20.

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